[1]杨丽萍,程立军,李潇,等.某三甲中医医院ICU感染发生率时间序列分析及趋势预测[J].西部中医药,2024,37(09):78-82.[doi:10.12174/j.issn.2096-9600.2024.09.18]
　YANG Liping,CHENG Lijun,LI Xiao,et al.Time Series Analysis of ICU Infection Incidence Rates in a Tertiary TCM Hospital and the Trend Prediction[J].Western Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine,2024,37(09):78-82.[doi:10.12174/j.issn.2096-9600.2024.09.18]
点击复制

某三甲中医医院ICU感染发生率时间序列分析及趋势预测
分享到：

《西部中医药》[ISSN:2096-9600/CN:62-1204/R]

卷:
37
期数:
2024年09期
页码:
78-82
栏目:
调查分析
出版日期:
2024-09-15

文章信息/Info

Title:
Time Series Analysis of ICU Infection Incidence Rates in a Tertiary TCM Hospital and the Trend Prediction
作者:
杨丽萍1,2, 程立军3, 李潇1, 杨雳畯1, 丁淑玉2, 王靖研2, 黄文莉2, 毛宝宏2,4
1.甘肃省中医院公共卫生与医院感染管理处，甘肃 兰州 730050
2.甘肃中医药大学公共卫生学院，甘肃 兰州 730000
3.甘肃省康泰医院，甘肃 兰州 730046
4.甘肃省妇幼保健院/甘肃省中心医院医学教育部，甘肃 兰州 730050
Author(s):
YANG Liping1,2, CHENG Lijun3, LI Xiao1, YANG Lijun1, DING Shuyu2, WANG Jingyan2, HUANG Wenli2, MAO Baohong2,4
1.Department of Public Health and Hospital Infection Management, Gansu Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Lanzhou 730050, China
2.Public Health School, Gansu University of Chinese Medicine, Lanzhou 730050, China
3.Gansu Province Kangtai Hospital, Lanzhou 730046, China
4.Medical Education Department, Gansu Provincial Maternity and Child-care Hospital (Gansu Provincial Central Hospital), Lanzhou 730050, China
关键词:
医院感染; 重症监护病房; 求和自回归滑动平均模型; 时间序列; 趋势预测
Keywords:
nosocomial infection; ICU; ARIMA model; time series; trend prediction
分类号:
R184.6
DOI:
10.12174/j.issn.2096-9600.2024.09.18
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
目的了解某三甲中医医院ICU感染发生率的时序分布特征，预测其发生规律和趋势，为中医医院ICU感染监测提供数据支持。 方法收集某三甲中医医院2019年1月至2024年2月ICU医院感染数据。利用求和自回归滑动平均模型（Autoregressive integrated moving average，ARIMA）对ICU感染发生趋势进行预测并评价其预测效果。 结果2019年1月至2024年2月某三甲中医医院ICU医院感染发生率为2.61%（232/8895）；时间序列分析显示，ICU医院感染发生率波动较大且存在一定周期性，总体呈下降趋势。根据赤池信息准则和贝叶斯信息准则拟合，ARIMA（0，1，1）为最优预测模型。经参数估计与效果评价，感染发生率实际值均在预测值95%可信区间内，模型预测效果较好。 结论运用ARIMA对某三甲中医医院ICU医院感染发生率的预测结果良好，可显示其长期发生规律与趋势，能为医院感染监测提供科学依据。
Abstract:
ObjectiveTo investigate the temporal distribution characteristics of ICU infection incidences in a tertiary TCM hospital, and to predict the law and trend of its occurrence, so as to provide data support for the monitoring of ICU infection in TCM hospital. MethodsThe data of nosocomial infection in ICU were collected from January 2019 to February 2024 in a tertiary TCM hospital, ARIMA model was utilized to predict the trend of ICU infection and predict its predicitive effects. ResultsThe incidence of nosocomial infection in ICU between January 2019 and February 2024 was 2.61% (232/8895) in a tertiary TCM hospital; time series analysis showed that the ICU hospital infection incidence rate fluctuated and had a certain periodicity with an overall decreasing trend. ARIMA (0, 1, 1) was the optimal prediction model according to the Akaike informativeness criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) fitting. After parameter estimation and effectiveness evaluation, the actual values of infection incidence were within the 95% confidence interval of the predicted values, and the model has a good predictive effect. ConclusionARIMA can be used to predict the incidence of hospital infection in ICU of a tertiary hospital, and it can show the long-term pattern and trend of the occurrence, which could provide scientific basis for the monitoring of hospital infection.

相似文献/References:

[1]李明霞,李春梅.妇科院感品管圈活动对提升医护人员感染质控意识的作用[J].西部中医药,2013,26(03):45.
　LI Mingxia,LI Chunmei.Function of Quality Control Circle to Improve Medical Staff's Sense of Quality Control for Infection in Gynecological epartment[J].Western Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine,2013,26(09):45.
[2]程麦莉,周毓萍,石丽丽,等.西北地区某三甲中医院感染现患率调查分析[J].西部中医药,2013,26(03):69.
　CHENG Maili,ZHOU Yuping,SHI Lili,et al.Survey on Infection Prevalence Rate of A Three As TCM Hospital in Northwest Area[J].Western Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine,2013,26(09):69.
[3]张永玲,张永红△.民族地区三级医院医院感染现患率调查分析[J].西部中医药,2013,26(04):65.
　ZHANG Yongling,ZHANG Yonghong.On Prevalence Rate of Nosocomial Infection at Tertiary Hospital in Minority Area[J].Western Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine,2013,26(09):65.
[4]王莉,唐春莲,杨冬梅△.脑卒中患者多重耐药菌感染调查与护理干预[J].西部中医药,2014,27(11):138.
[5]宋光芬.浅谈针灸治疗中存在的医院感染问题及对策[J].西部中医药,2015,28(03):73.
[6]权金林,毛 莉,程麦莉,等.某三甲医院手卫生依从性暗访调查与分析[J].西部中医药,2015,28(04):82.
[7]薛世萍,马忠祥△,程麦莉.浅析中医院中医诊疗过程中的医院感染管理[J].西部中医药,2015,28(11):60.
[8]谢丽宇.消毒供应室清洗质量的控制及管理[J].西部中医药,2013,26(06):33.
　XIE Liyu.Quality Control and Management of Disinfection Room[J].Western Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine,2013,26(09):33.
[9]尚秀娟,吴玉芳,安立红,等.多重耐药菌医院感染情况的调查[J].西部中医药,2016,29(02):89.
　SHANG Xiujuan,WU Yufang,AN Lihong,et al.Investigation of Nosocomial Infection Conditions of Multiple Resistant Bacteria[J].Western Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine,2016,29(09):89.
[10]薛世萍,程麦莉,石丽丽.医院感染与护理管理探讨[J].西部中医药,2018,31(01):54.
　XUE Shiping,CHENG Maili,SHI Lili.Discussion on Hospital Infection and Nursing Management[J].Western Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine,2018,31(09):54.

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
杨丽萍（1981—），女，硕士学位，副主任医师。研究方向：传染病和医院感染预防与控制。甘肃省自然科学基金（22JR5RA633）；陇原青年创新创业人才项目（2021LQTD10）。
更新日期/Last Update: 2024-09-15