[1]王晓怀,寇嘉宁,张丽君,等.基于灰色GM（1，1）模型预测中医药期刊核心总被引频次和核心影响因子的趋势[J].西部中医药,2025,38(07):61-66.[doi:10.12174/j.issn.2096-9600.2025.07.14]
　WANG Xiaohuai,KOU Jia?ning,ZHANG Lijun,et al.Prediction of Trend of Core Total Citation Frequency and Core Influencing Factors of Traditional Chinese Medicine Journals Based on Grey GM (1,1) Model[J].Western Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine,2025,38(07):61-66.[doi:10.12174/j.issn.2096-9600.2025.07.14]
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基于灰色GM（1，1）模型预测中医药期刊核心总被引频次和核心影响因子的趋势()

《西部中医药》[ISSN:2096-9600/CN:62-1204/R]

卷:
38
期数:
2025年07期
页码:
61-66
栏目:
调查分析
出版日期:
2025-07-15

文章信息/Info

Title:
Prediction of Trend of Core Total Citation Frequency and Core Influencing Factors of Traditional Chinese Medicine Journals Based on Grey GM (1,1) Model
作者:
王晓怀1,2, 寇嘉宁3, 张丽君2, 赵晓丽1,2, 王安萍1,2, 张治宽1,2
1.甘肃省中医院，甘肃 兰州 730050
2.甘肃省中医药研究院，甘肃 兰州 730050
3.甘肃省疾病预防控制中心，甘肃 兰州 730000
Author(s):
WANG Xiaohuai1,2, KOU Jia?ning3, ZHANG Lijun2, ZHAO Xiaoli1,2, WANG Anping1,2, ZHANG Zhikuan1,2
1.Gansu Provincial Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Lanzhou 730050, China
2.Gansu Provincial Academy of Chinese Medicine, Lanzhou 730050, China
3.Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Lanzhou 730000, China
关键词:
灰色GM（1; 1）模型; 期刊; 中医药; 核心总被引频次; 核心影响因子; 预测
Keywords:
grey GM (1; 1) model; journals; TCM; core total citation frequency; core influencing factors; prediction
分类号:
R-1
DOI:
10.12174/j.issn.2096-9600.2025.07.14
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
目的采用灰色GM（1，1）模型预测我国中医药科技期刊的核心总被引频次和核心影响因子，为中医药期刊的发展提供数据支撑。 方法基于2012—2023年我国中医药期刊的核心总被引频次和核心影响因子数据建立GM（1，1）预测模型，对2024—2026年我国中医类杂志的核心总被引频次和核心影响因子变化趋势进行预测分析。 结果2024—2026年各中医药期刊核心总被引频次的预测结果中医学为4500.36、4908.36、5353.35次，中医学大学学报为2275.82、2441.61、2619.47次，中西医结合医学为2211.78、2256.98、2303.10次，中药学为6042.15、6626.63、7267.66次，针灸及中医骨伤类为2200.15、2222.62、2245.31次；2024—2026年核心影响因子预测结果依次为1.44、1.63、1.83，中医学为1.44、1.63、1.83，中医学大学学报为1.50、1.69、1.90，中西医结合医学为1.01、1.06、1.11，中药学为1.76、1.98、2.23，针灸及中医骨伤类为1.43、1.51、1.59。 结论运用灰色GM（1，1）模型对我国中医药期刊的核心总被引频次和影响因子变化趋势进行预测分析可行，且预测精度等级好，预测值与实际值走势一致，模型拟合度较高，可为提升中医类期刊的质量和发展提供参考依据。
Abstract:
ObjectiveTo predict core total citation frequency and core influencing factors of traditional Chinese medicine journals based on grey GM (1,1) model, so as to provide data support for the development of TCM journals. MethodsBased on the core total citation frequency and core influencing factor of TCM journals from 2012 to 2023, a GM (1,1) prediction model was established to predict and analyze the trend of core total citation frequency and core influencing factors of Chinese medicine journals from 2024 to 2026. ResultsFrom 2024 to 2026, predicted total citation frequency of core Chinese medicine journals was 4500.36, 4908.36 and 5353.35 times for TCM, 2275.82, 2441.61 and 2619.47 times for Journals of TCM University, 2211.78, 2256.98 and 2303.10 times for integrated traditional Chinese and Western medicine, 6042.15, 6626.63, 7267.66 times for materia medica, 2200.15, 2222.62 and 2245.31 times for acupuncture and moxibustion, and TCM bone trauma; and the prediction results of core influencing factors from 2024 to 2026 were 1.44, 1.63 and 1.83, 1.44, 1.63 and 1.83 for TCM, 1.50, 1.69 and 1.90 for Journals of TCM University, 1.01, 1.06 and 1.11 for integrated traditional Chinese and Western medicine, 1.76, 1.98 and 2.23 for materia medica, 1.43, 1.51 and 1.59 for acupuncture and moxibustion, and TCM bone trauma. ConclusionIt is feasible to use the grey GM (1,1) model to predict and analyze the changes in the core total citation frequency and influencing factors of traditional Chinese medicine journals in China with good prediction accuracy and high model fitting degree, and the trend of the forecast value is consistent with that of the actual value, providing reference for improving the quality and development of traditional Chinese medicine journals.

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
王晓怀（1981—），男，硕士学位，主治医师。研究方向：中医预防与中医药信息。
更新日期/Last Update: 2025-07-15